✓ Free·✓ No signup·✓ Compare two deals side-by-side·✓Includes S&P 500 opportunity cost
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Investment Deal Analysis

30-year rental property vs S&P 500 wealth comparison.

Does this deal beat the S&P 500?

+$1.31M30-year pre-tax wealth lead vs S&P (base)

Yes — after 30 years, this deal beats the S&P 500.

The Bottom Line

One-glance summary of your deal.

Single Family
Priced by owner-occupants
0.44×
DSCR (Year 1)
Net Operating Income ÷ total annual debt service
Year 30 vs S&Ppre-tax wealth lead
+$1.31M
Real Estate Wins
Catches up at year 8
74%
of gain from appreciation
Your assumption: 5.0%/yr. US long-run average is ~3.5%; coastal metros have historically been 5–7%.
📋 Educational tool — not investment advice▾
This calculator is for learning and exploration. Nothing here is investment, tax, legal, or real-estate advice. Before making any offer, consult a licensed real estate broker, a CPA, and a real estate attorney in your state.
👇Click a tab to explore

What If? — Live Sensitivity

Drag any slider to instantly see how changing that assumption shifts the outcome.

Annual Appreciation5%/yr
1%10%
RE overtakes S&P in Year 8
Annual Rent Growth4%/yr
0%8%
Cash flow turns positive in Year 17
Vacancy Rate5%
0%20%
Year 1 cash flow: −$25K/yr
Alternative Return Rate7%/yr
4%12%
RE leads by $1.31M at Year 30

Changes here update your inputs. Use “Reset to defaults” in the Deal Inputs panel to restore original values.

Wealth Over Time: Real Estate vs S&P 500

Stacked: home equity + cumulative cash flow + tax savings. Line: S&P 500 base case (7%).

Annual Cash Flow — 30 Years

Red bars = out-of-pocket. Green bars = money in your pocket.

First positive year
Year 17

Common questions

If the answer to your question isn't here, open any metric's "Explain this" link in the Deep Dive tab for a longer read.

Is this really free?▾
Yes. The full calculator, 30-year projections, Deep Dive, side-by-side comparison, sensitivity sliders, saved deals, and PDF export are all free. No account, no email, no trial. Inputs stay in your browser unless you explicitly share a link or save a deal locally.
What makes this different from other rental calculators?▾
Most rental calculators only compare one deal to another rental. This tool is the only one that treats passive investing in the S&P 500 as the baseline. Every dollar of down payment, plus every year of negative cash flow, is modeled as if it had gone into the market instead — so you see the genuine opportunity cost, not just whether the property cash flows on paper.
How accurate are the numbers?▾
The 30-year engine reconciles to a professional Excel model within a few dollars on every benchmark (28/28 regression checks: year-1 NOI, year-10 wealth, year-30 appreciation, after-tax exit, DSCR, IRR, and more). Property tax grows under California Prop 13 rules when relevant; depreciation phases out correctly after year 27.5; the S&P comparison applies capital gains at exit. Caveats: this is educational only — it does not handle passive-loss phase-outs above $150K AGI and assumes full deductibility of operating losses.
Can I compare two properties?▾
Yes. Click "Compare another deal" on any results page. Deal A stays as you entered it; Deal B starts as a copy you can edit. A Compare tab appears with a head-to-head scoreboard, a metric-by-metric delta table with plain-English explanations, and overlaid charts. The entire comparison is a shareable URL — no save button needed.
Can I save a deal and come back to it later?▾
Yes. The My Saved Dealspanel in the inputs column stores deals in your browser's local storage. Name them, load them, rename them, delete them. No account required. Saved deals include both Deal A and Deal B when you're comparing.
Can I send this analysis to my CPA or spouse?▾
Click Save PDF at the top of the results. The browser print dialog opens with a one-page professional report (property name, date, key metrics, charts, exit analysis). Save as PDF and email it. For a live interactive link, click Share — the URL encodes every input, including Deal B if you're comparing.
I’m a beginner — will I understand the jargon?▾
Every technical term (DSCR, cap rate, IRR, cash-on-cash) leads with a plain-English primary label — "Does rent cover the mortgage?", "Yield on purchase price" — and keeps the industry term as a small subtitle. The Learn tab has a full glossary, and the Deep Dive tab has a Gut-Check Rules of Thumb section (the 1% rule and the 50% rule) with honest caveats.
Do you handle short-term rentals (vacation / nightly)?▾
Not yet. Short-term rental analysis needs live market data (nightly rates, occupancy by zip) that specialized STR-data tools focus on. For long-term rentals, ADUs, house-hacks, duplexes, fourplexes, and multifamily, this tool handles it all.
Projections are for educational purposes. Not investment advice.