✓ Free·✓ No signup·✓ Compare two deals side-by-side·✓ Includes stock-market opportunity cost
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Investment Deal Analysis

30-year rental property vs the stock market.

Does this deal beat the stock market?

+$1.11M30-year lead vs the stock market · after tax

Yes — after 30 years and all taxes, buying comes out about $1.11M ahead of putting the same money in the stock market. Most of that comes from the property rising in value.

These are example numbers. Enter your own deal to see your answer.Edit ↓

The Bottom Line

One-glance summary of your deal.

Single Family
Priced by owner-occupants
0.44×
DSCR (Year 1)
How many times over the rental income covers the loan payments. Lenders like to see 1.25× or higher.
Year 30 vs stock marketafter-tax lead
+$1.11M
Real Estate Wins
Pulls ahead at year 12
74%
of gain from appreciation
Your assumption: 5.0%/yr. US long-run average is ~4%/yr (FHFA); coastal metros have historically been 5–7%.
📋 Educational tool — not investment advice▾
This calculator is for learning and exploration. Nothing here is investment, tax, legal, or real-estate advice. Before making any offer, consult a licensed real estate broker, a CPA, and a real estate attorney in your state.
👇Click a tab to explore

What your money becomes

The same $213K down payment, two paths — worth this much after 30 years, after tax.

Buy this property$3.19M≈15× your money
Invest the same money (stock market)$2.08M≈9.8× your money
Real estate comes out $1.11M ahead.

How far ahead is real estate?

The gap between buying and investing the same money, each year — after tax. Above the line, real estate wins; below it, stocks does.

Real estate aheadStocks ahead
At year 30: real estate ahead +$1.11M

What If? — Live Sensitivity

Drag any slider to instantly see how changing that assumption shifts the outcome.

Annual Appreciation5%/yr
1%10%
RE overtakes the market in Year 12
Annual Rent Growth4%/yr
0%8%
Cash flow turns positive in Year 17
Vacancy Rate5%
0%20%
Year 1 cash flow: −$25K/yr
Alternative Return Rate7%/yr
4%12%
RE leads by $1.11M at Year 30

Changes here update your inputs. Use “Reset to defaults” in the Deal Inputs panel to restore original values.

Common questions

If the answer to your question isn't here, open any metric's "Explain this" link in the Deep Dive tab for a longer read.

Is this really free?▾
Yes. The full calculator, 30-year projections, Deep Dive, side-by-side comparison, sensitivity sliders, saved deals, and PDF export are all free. No account, no email, no trial. Inputs stay in your browser unless you explicitly share a link or save a deal locally.
What makes this different from other rental calculators?▾
Most rental calculators only compare one deal to another rental. This tool is the only one that treats passive investing in the the stock market as the baseline. Every dollar of down payment, plus every year of negative cash flow, is modeled as if it had gone into the market instead — so you see the genuine opportunity cost, not just whether the property cash flows on paper.
How accurate are the numbers?▾
The 30-year engine reconciles to a professional Excel model within a few dollars on every benchmark (50+ automated checks: year-1 NOI, year-10 wealth, year-30 after-tax exit, cap rate, DSCR, plus the IRS depreciation and recapture rules and internal accounting identities). Property tax grows under California Prop 13 rules when relevant; depreciation phases out correctly after year 27.5; the stock-market comparison applies capital gains at exit. Caveats: this is educational only — it does not handle passive-loss phase-outs above $150K AGI and assumes full deductibility of operating losses.
Can I compare two properties?▾
Yes. Click "Compare another deal" on any results page. Deal A stays as you entered it; Deal B starts as a copy you can edit. A Compare tab appears with a head-to-head scoreboard, a metric-by-metric delta table with plain-English explanations, and overlaid charts. The entire comparison is a shareable URL — no save button needed.
Can I save a deal and come back to it later?▾
Yes. The My Saved Dealspanel in the inputs column stores deals in your browser's local storage. Name them, load them, rename them, delete them. No account required. Saved deals include both Deal A and Deal B when you're comparing.
Can I send this analysis to my CPA or spouse?▾
Click Save PDF at the top of the results. The browser print dialog opens with a one-page professional report (property name, date, key metrics, charts, exit analysis). Save as PDF and email it. For a live interactive link, click Share — the URL encodes every input, including Deal B if you're comparing.
I’m a beginner — will I understand the jargon?▾
Every technical term (DSCR, cap rate, IRR, cash-on-cash) leads with a plain-English primary label — "Does rent cover the mortgage?", "Yield on purchase price" — and keeps the industry term as a small subtitle. The Learn tab has a full glossary, and the Deep Dive tab has a Gut-Check Rules of Thumb section (the 1% rule and the 50% rule) with honest caveats.
Do you handle short-term rentals (vacation / nightly)?▾
Not yet. Short-term rental analysis needs live market data (nightly rates, occupancy by zip) that specialized STR-data tools focus on. For long-term rentals, ADUs, house-hacks, duplexes, fourplexes, and multifamily, this tool handles it all.
Projections are for educational purposes. Not investment advice.